Discrete wavelet‐based trend identification in hydrologic time series     

Yan‐Fang Sang  Zhonggen Wang  Changming Liu 《水文研究》2013,27(14):2021-2031

Trend identification is a substantial issue in hydrologic series analysis, but it is also a difficult task in practice due to the confusing concept of trend and disadvantages of methods. In this article, an improved definition of trend was given as follows: ‘a trend is the deterministic component in the analysed data and corresponds to the biggest temporal scale on the condition of giving the concerned temporal scale’. It emphasizes the intrinsic and deterministic properties of trend, can clearly distinguish trend from periodicities and points out the prerequisite of the concerned temporal scale only by giving which the trend has its specific meaning. Correspondingly, the discrete wavelet‐based method for trend identification was improved. Differing from those methods used presently, the improved method is to identify trend by comparing the energy difference between hydrologic data and noise, and it can simultaneously separate periodicities and noise. Furthermore, the improved method can quantitatively estimate the statistical significance of the identified trend by using proper confidence interval. Analyses of both synthetic and observed series indicated the identical power of the improved method as the Mann–Kendall test in assessing the statistical significance of the trend in hydrologic data, and by using the former, the identified trend can adaptively reflect the nonlinear and nonstationary variability of hydrologic data. Besides, the results also showed the influences of three key factors (wavelet choice, decomposition level choice and noise content) on discrete wavelet‐based trend identification; hence, they should be carefully considered in practice. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessing uncertainties in a conceptual water balance model using Bayesian methodology / Estimation bayésienne des incertitudes au sein d’une modélisation conceptuelle de bilan hydrologique     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1)

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this study was to estimate the uncertainties in the streamflow simulated by a rainfall–runoff model. Two sources of uncertainties in hydrological modelling were considered: the uncertainties in model parameters and those in model structure. The uncertainties were calculated by Bayesian statistics, and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to simulate the posterior parameter distribution. The parameter uncertainty calculated by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was compared to maximum likelihood estimates which assume that both the parameters and model residuals are normally distributed. The study was performed using the model WASMOD on 25 basins in central Sweden. Confidence intervals in the simulated discharge due to the parameter uncertainty and the total uncertainty were calculated. The results indicate that (a) the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the maximum likelihood method give almost identical estimates concerning the parameter uncertainty, and (b) the uncertainties in the simulated streamflow due to the parameter uncertainty are less important than uncertainties originating from other sources for this simple model with fewer parameters.  相似文献   

Neuro-fuzzy models employing wavelet analysis for suspended sediment concentration prediction in rivers     

Seyed Ahmad Mirbagheri  Taher Rajaee  Amir Alikhani 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(7):1175-1189

Abstract

The study of sediment load is important for its implications to the environment and water resources engineering. Four models were considered in the study of suspended sediment concentration prediction: artificial neural networks (ANNs), neuro-fuzzy model (NF), conjunction of wavelet analysis and neuro-fuzzy (WNF) model, and the conventional sediment rating curve (SRC) method. Using data from a US Geological Survey gauging station, the suspended sediment concentration predicted by the WNF model was in satisfactory agreement with the measured data. Also the proposed WNF model generated reasonable predictions for the extreme values. The cumulative suspended sediment load estimated by this model was much higher than that predicted by the other models, and is close to the observed data. However, in the current modelling, the ANN, NF and SRC models underestimated sediment load. The WNF model was successful in reproducing the hysteresis phenomenon, but the SRC method was not able to model this behaviour. In general, the results showed that the NF model performed better than the ANN and SRC models.

Citation Mirbagheri, S. A., Nourani, V., Rajaee, T. & Alikhani, A. (2010) Neuro-fuzzy models employing wavelet analysis for suspended sediment concentration prediction in rivers. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1175–1189.  相似文献   

一种遥感信息服务分类本体构建方法     

詹勤  李德仁  眭海刚  张霞 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2010,(3)

在分析遥感信息服务的领域特征及其概念的事件名词特点的基础上,结合框架语义学理论,提出了基于事件框架提取遥感信息服务概念的语义特征并在此基础上利用形式概念分析构建遥感信息服务分类本体的方法。实验结果表明了此方法的有效性。  相似文献   

基于GIS的海底管线应急系统关键技术   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

张建辉 《地理空间信息》2010,8(4):74-76

根据当前海底管线建设和发展的形势,分析了目前海底管线系统存在的不足,并结合海底管线管理业务的实际,基于二维GIS和三维仿真技术,研究建设二三维一体化的海底管线系统的关键技术,并实现了原型系统。  相似文献   

Finite element analysis of the effect of corrosion on the behavior of reinforced earth walls     

Truong‐Linh Chau  Emmanuel Bourgeois  Alain Corfdir 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2012,36(15):1741-1756

A simple model for the corrosion‐induced loss of stiffness and strength of the steel strips of earth‐reinforced walls was introduced in a finite element simulation of the long‐term behavior of the wall, in which the backfill‐strips interactions are taken into account by means of a generalized homogenization procedure (called a multiphase model). The results show an initial phase of slow displacements induced by the loss of stiffness, followed after a few decades by a steep acceleration of the displacements, leading to wall failure. The influences of the parameter controlling corrosion, the backfill cohesion and the heterogeneity of the corrosion process are discussed. Results are used to discuss a strategy for reinforced earth wall surveillance. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

测边后方交会在精密工程中的应用分析     

郑攀攀  高飞  吴兆福  郝长春 《四川测绘》2010,(5):212-215

本文通过对普通测设方法（极坐标法、直角坐标法等）的分析引出了测边后方交会的方法,并简要介绍了测边后方交会法的基本原理,推导了测边后方交会法的计算公式,评定了该方法的精度,论证了该方法在精密工程中的可行性,弥补了极坐标、直角坐标等普通测设方法在精密工程中的缺陷。  相似文献   

Monitoring agricultural cropping patterns across the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin using MODIS-NDVI data     

Ross S. Lunetta  Yang Shao  Jayantha Ediriwickrema  John G. Lyon 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2010

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 16-day composite data product (MOD12Q) was used to develop annual cropland and crop-specific map products (corn, soybeans, and wheat) for the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin (GLB). The crop area distributions and changes in crop rotations were characterized by comparing annual crop map products for 2005, 2006, and 2007. The total acreages for corn and soybeans were relatively balanced for calendar years 2005 (31,462 km² and 31,283 km², respectively) and 2006 (30,766 km² and 30,972 km², respectively). Conversely, corn acreage increased approximately 21% from 2006 to 2007, while soybean and wheat acreage decreased approximately 9% and 21%, respectively. Two-year crop rotational change analyses were conducted for the 2005–2006 and 2006–2007 time periods. The large increase in corn acreages for 2007 introduced crop rotation changes across the GLB. Compared to 2005–2006, crop rotation patterns for 2006–2007 resulted in increased corn–corn, soybean–corn, and wheat–corn rotations. The increased corn acreages could have potential negative impacts on nutrient loadings, pesticide exposures, and sediment-mediated habitat degradation. Increased in US corn acreages in 2007 were related to new biofuel mandates, while Canadian increases were attributed to higher world-wide corn prices. Additional study is needed to determine the potential impacts of increases in corn-based ethanol agricultural production on watershed ecosystems and receiving waters.  相似文献   

Developing the tools for geological shape analysis,with regional‐ to local‐scale examples from the Kalgoorlie Terrane of Western Australia     

S. J. Gardoll  D. I. Groves  C. M. Knox-Robinson  G. Y. Yun  N. Elliott 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(5):943-953

Geological map data are often underused in mineral‐exploration programs, which rely increasingly on regolith geochemistry and geophysical and other remotely sensed data to generate exploration targets. However, solid geology maps, which are progressively being upgraded due to improved interpretations of superior, remotely sensed images and airborne geophysical data, can be useful in targeting specific types of mineral deposits, which formed late in the evolutionary history of the host terrane. In such terranes, the present map geometry is essentially the same as that at the time of deposit formation. This is the case for orogenic lode‐gold deposits, which commonly show predictable structural controls and/or structural geometry. Thus, the shape of a rock body, or combinations of structures and rock bodies, may provide an important guide to the exploration potential for orogenic lode‐gold deposits. However, until recently, there has been a dearth of techniques to quantify the various properties of shape, and hence test the potential of the two‐dimensional shape of geological bodies in map view as an exploration tool. Integrating techniques from the field of pattern recognition with a modern Geographical Information System (GIS) can provide the shape‐analysis tools required to investigate the geometries of geological shapes. Two‐dimensional shape analysis is now possible through the calculation of several shape metrics including, but not restricted to, aspect ratio, blockiness, elongation, compactness, complexity, roundness, spreadness and squareness. Methods are developed for describing the geometries of rock units about mineral deposits, or any geological features, at any scale, which for the first time makes it possible to compare shapes. These shape‐analysis techniques are tested using orogenic lode‐gold deposits, particularly those in the Kalgoorlie Terrane of the highly auriferous Late Archaean Norseman‐Wiluna Belt of Western Australia. On a global scale, shape analysis indicates that those greenstone belts whose volcanic rock sequences have high elongation and relative low roundness, complexity and aspect ratio (e.g. Kalgoorlie Terrane) are likely to be the most richly endowed in gold. On a more local scale, characteristics of the shape of geological features around the Golden Mile deposit are calculated and used to test the likelihood of occurrence of gold deposits with similar geometry elsewhere in the Kalgoorlie Terrane. The area with the most closely matching shape, on the basis of a 2 km clipping‐circle radius, chosen on the basis of available proximity‐analysis data, corresponds to the recently discovered Ghost Crab deposit, illustrating the potential of the shape analysis methodology in mineral exploration. Shape analysis is, at least in part, scale dependent, due to the inherent problem of being able to define rock boundaries more precisely in units that have strong geophysical signatures than those with weak signatures in poorly exposed terranes. Overcoming this problem is a challenge to the application of this methodology.  相似文献   

中国产业发展与布局的关联法则   总被引：6，自引：2，他引：6  

贺灿飞  朱晟君 《地理学报》2020,75(12):2684-2698

产业地理学研究产业空间分布及其动态演化规律。基于地理邻近性的集聚理论揭示了产业地理不平衡分布的内在机制。演化经济地理学借鉴演化经济学的历史视角,从历史角度考察经济活动空间分布的渐进演化机制,认为地理邻近性不是产业地理格局演化的充分必要条件,以认知邻近性为核心的多维邻近性能够提供更好的解释。本文从认知邻近视角系统地分析了中国区域产业发展与布局动态演化规律,总结出中国产业发展与布局的“关联法则”,即一个企业或区域进入（或退出）某项经济活动的概率是该企业或地区拥有的基于相关知识基础的经济活动的函数。本文全面地回顾了关联法则涉及的关键概念,梳理企业和区域尺度的实证研究成果,讨论关联法则在中国的适用性及其补充和拓展。本文指出：① 在认知邻近视角下,基于资源转换和组织学习等理论基础,关联法则研究了企业或区域发展新产业与现有产业之间的关系。② 关联法则不仅适用于中国企业和区域尺度,还会影响区域经济发展、创新和韧性等。③ 外部联系、冲击以及内部制度环境等可能会降低区域产业动态对本地产业基础的依赖性。关联法则指出中国区域需培育内生发展模式,围绕现有区域能力、技术和知识积累发展区域产业和实现区际产业优化布局与分工,逐步建立相关多样化的产业体系,增强区域韧性,支撑国内经济循环。  相似文献